For decades the United States was the world’s great consumer, importing more than it sold, and building trade deficits around the planet. Now, in pockets of the emerging and frontier world, Washington is suddenly chalking up trade surpluses. At first glance, this looks like an American comeback. In reality, it is an illusion built on… Read more: Tariff Diplomacy and the Illusion of Surpluses

Forget the viral clips. The real story out of the NATO Summit wasn’t Trump’s mood swings or Zelenskyy’s charm offensive. It was a quiet yet seismic financial shift – one that fundamentally rewires how the West funds Ukraine’s war effort. For the first time, NATO has agreed that aid to Ukraine can officially count towards… Read more: Why the Biggest NATO Summit Story Flew Under the Radar

A major shift is underway. Where it leads is still unclear – but all signs point towards deeper US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran. The pre-conditions are largely in place, both politically and operationally, and the logic of escalation is closing fast. This piece breaks down the drivers, risks and likely consequences. Political… Read more: Is the USA About to Join Israel Against Iran?

Ekrem İmamoğlu is one of the most formidable political threats to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule. In this article we delve into his significance for Türkiye, and why his recent arrest has caused such a vociferous reaction across the country. If you have not already read our article Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy then we… Read more: Türkiye: Who is İmamoğlu and Why Does He Matter?

President Erdoğan has made significant shifts in Turkish politics over his more than two decades in power, transitioning Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency all while consolidating control over key institutions. Here are some of the most critical changes and how he did it. In 2017, Erdoğan pushed for a constitutional referendum… Read more: Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy

The recent revelation by The Atlantic’s editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, that he was inadvertently included in a Signal chat group discussing imminent US airstrikes on Yemen is nothing short of astonishing. This scandal exposes a troubling mix of incompetence, naiveté and callous disregard for both military realities and global alliances. The implications of this blunder will… Read more: So Much For “Deep and Thoughtful” – Vance’s Signal Debacle

President Donald Trump has openly criticized NATO, suggesting the US should leave the alliance. Elon Musk has echoed similar sentiments and US relations with NATO allies have been under strain. It is worth considering what a NATO without the United States might look like – and what it could be capable of. Financial Facts A… Read more: An American NATO Exit: A Costly Mistake?

There is an old, if rather distasteful, analogy: drop a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, but put it in cold water, slowly turn up the heat, and the frog will stay until it dies. So it is with both those still blindly following Trump, believing his and Vance’s crass actions conceal some… Read more: Boiling Frogs: Trump’s Amateur Administration

Every nation has its own unique power blend to employ in the pursuit of its aims. Some nations’ blends are stronger, some are weaker, but all of them are composed of two ingredients – hard and soft power. The precise mix of soft and hard ingredients in each nation’s power smoothie, depends on that country’s… Read more: The Power of Nations

We are living through a defining moment in history; the now unmistakable, and ignominious in its execution, end of Pax Americana. This is not just a transition into the Indo-Pacific Tilt geopolitical epoch; it is the sad, premature death of American pre-eminence as the world’s foremost authority and power. And no, this is not entirely… Read more: Requiem Colossus

It seems as if every day another media pundit is screaming that World War III is imminent. Among other factors, first and foremost they point to Russia, citing her invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine now being authorized to use NATO weapons to strike inside Russia, and North Korean troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. The list… Read more: WWIII? Let’s All Just Calm Down, Shall We?

In our recent article “WWIII? Let’s All Just Calm Down, Shall We?” we debunked the media’s histrionic narrative that WWIII is imminent and inevitable, and explained the geopolitical context behind today’s global instability … and the likelihood that the planet will resettle in coming years. At the centre of the media’s shrill WWIII predictions stemming… Read more: WWIII Predictions and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

In our recent article “The Indo-Pacific Tilt: What Is It and Why Do You Care?” we explained how the world has undergone a tectonic geopolitical shift since mid-2021, and one that is already affecting you and your investments. We also touched on the investment opportunities that this new geopolitical era now offers to those who,… Read more: Emerging & Frontier Market Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Tilt Era

First, we shall explain what the Indo-Pacific Tilt is, how we know that it has occurred, and why it is so significant. We will go on to explain why you really should care; it has already affected you, and will continue to do so, bringing both risk and opportunity to your business and investments. What… Read more: The Indo-Pacific Tilt: What Is It And Why Do You Care?

The below analysis was provided to our clients on 1st February 2024. Since then, conversations about increasing European defence spending have been rife across the continent. In recent weeks there have been some fairly alarming statements made by UK politicians, senior serving and retired UK military officers, and by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy on a recent… Read more: Thinking the unthinkable – why talk of resuming UK conscription is not what it seems

The below analysis was originally provided to our clients on 25th May 2022. It remains highly relevant. With every day that goes by since Russia invaded Ukraine there seem to be more and more pundits and politicians opining that “Russia has changed the world”. This narrative gives President Putin far too much credit, suggesting that… Read more: Russia has not “changed the world’ – Putin Doesn’t Deserve Such Credit

1st September 2021 How did we get here, to this debacle? For that it is what it absolutely is – a debacle, a tragedy, a geopolitical misstep. You, our clients, have known for many months, even years, our fervent position that negotiations with the Afghan Taliban (henceforth Taliban, as opposed to the Pakistani Taliban or… Read more: The Withdrawal From Afghanistan – A Debacle

10th October 2018 Once again, talks between Cairo and Addis Ababa have ended in deadlock. In the last week of September Water Ministers from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt met in the Ethiopian capital to discuss the reservoir filling operations of the dam. Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s proposals. The three countries have been engaging in tripartite talks… Read more: Water Wars