We are living through a defining moment in history; the now unmistakable, and ignominious in its execution, end of Pax Americana. This is not just a transition into the Indo-Pacific Tilt geopolitical epoch; it is the sad, premature death of American pre-eminence as the world’s foremost authority and power. And no, this is not entirely Trump’s fault—mostly it is, but not wholly. The decline began in the twilight of Obama’s presidency, accelerated under Trump’s first term, stumbled through Biden’s tenure, and has now plunged off a cliff under Trump’s second term.
Soft Power
Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, recently warned of our shift into an era where nations without significant hard power will be dictated to by those who do. He rightly pointed to Putin and Trump as architects of this shift. However, what he did not have time to explain is that power is not solely about military might; it is also about a nation’s ability to garner respect, influence outcomes, and inspire trust – in short, softer forms of power. The United Kingdom, for example, compensates for its relative military weakness with softer tools including strategic alliances, a global diplomatic presence, overseas aid, the strategic deployment of royalty – all giving it a level of power out of any proportion to its real stature. In Trump’s Oval Office, Sir Keir Starmer’s brandishing of a letter from King Charles III underscored the UK’s mastery of soft power— even if the letter’s recipient did not realise it. Russia, by contrast, almost exclusively relies on hard power. Its economy is weak, its influence outside of coercion is minimal, it is not trusted nor respected, and its allies are few.
For 80 plus years, the United States has dominated by wielding a unique blend of economic and military hard power, bolstered by an equally potent soft power toolkit. Alongside her military might and economic leverage America projected power through the credibility of its leadership, its alliances, hard won moral authority, and ironclad global partnerships. It built that credibility and authority on the back of unbroken promises, multilateral commitments, overseas aid, just interventions, and strategic alliances, keeping the world roughly in line. Nations understood that to challenge the United States was to risk not just economic or military retribution but also political isolation. And thanks to the stability that this Pax Americana fostered, the USA prospered enormously, poised as it was to take advantage of the economic opportunities that that stability bred. That era is now over – for America is relinquishing her soft power arsenal.
The erosion of American soft power has been gradual but undeniable, culminating in the current administration’s wholesale abandonment of it. Key milestones in America’s declining authority include Trump’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal negotiations, Biden’s disastrous execution of that withdrawal, the betrayal of Kurdish allies after ISIS’s defeat, the shameful evacuation of only embassy staff from Sudan as civil war erupted, Trump’s sudden USAID stop-work order, and now Trump & Vance’s humiliation of Zelenskyy at the White House. Each of these moments has chipped away at America’s credibility, leaving allies questioning whether the US stands for anything at all. Her soft power is fast evaporating.
Trump neither understands nor values softer tools. His worldview is built on brute force, belligerence, and transactionalism – traits shaped by his never having had to learn about softer tools, because his inherited wealth gifted him hard power from the get-go. His admiration for autocrats is not incidental; it is reflective of his own understanding of and wielding of power. To Trump, power is measured in weapons and wealth simply because he has never had need for alliances, diplomacy, and trust. His predecessors, even when flawed, understood the immense value of softer tools to compliment hard. He does not.
But nations that rely on hard power alone suffer. ‘Rebuilding America’s Defenses’, a September 2000 report from the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century, warned that Pax Americana would not preserve itself. It required a strong military, a proactive foreign policy, and national leadership that embraced global responsibilities. Yet Trump openly scorns his own country’s military, his isolationist bent places no value in effective US foreign policy, and he has outright rejected America’s global responsibilities. For understandable reasons the American people have long resisted foreign entanglements, but what they – and Trump – fail to grasp is that a significant proportion of American power exactly depends on engagement, leadership, and credibility. The embrace of her global responsibilities is a crucial element of the power that protects the USA and its people. Without such soft power, the USA becomes weaker, not stronger.
Hard Power
Crucially too, America’s hard power has never stood alone. It has always been amplified by its network of allies, by NATO’s collective strength, and by the trust that US leadership once commanded. A unilateral America, stripped of its alliances, is no longer a superpower – it is simply another aggressive state, alone and resented. Without the legitimacy that allies provide, US military actions begin to resemble Russia’s; isolated, condemned, and fraught with long-term consequences.
Retired British General Sir John McColl recently stated that the US provides 50% of NATO’s combat power. From the perspective of its European allies, an American withdrawal from NATO would be catastrophic. But consider it from an alternative view; NATO effectively doubles the military power America can rely upon – that is not something to idly discard. And the USA can indeed rely upon it; from its founding in 1949 to today the only time NATO’s Article 5 (its mutual defence clause) has ever been invoked was in defence of the USA after 9/11. America’s allies proved their loyalty and reliability in the USA’s darkest hour. Trump’s disdain for them is both short-sighted, and self-destructive … for America.
Farewell Libertas
The United States, once the ultimate wielder of both hard and soft power, is now willingly surrendering a vast proportion of its arsenal – the soft power element. Trump’s reckless discarding of America’s diplomatic and moral authority does not strengthen the nation; it weakens it. By limiting America’s strategic toolkit to only hard power, he ensures that every future confrontation can only be met with military force or economic coercion—both of which furnish monumental risks for America. By carelessly throwing away crucial alliances and valuable soft tools Trump is weakening US power down to the level of Russia’s, and needlessly so.
Where America was once trusted and looked up to, it is now feared, resented, and derided. Once a beacon of stability, it has become erratic, self-serving, and transactional. And this decline will only continue. Trump is just weeks into his second term, unrestrained and surrounded only by flatterers, already squandering decades of hard-earned US moral authority. Nations that court US favour will suffer repeated, humiliating disappointments if they continue to seek the America of old – for she is gone.
Conclusion
Make no mistake; this is not an anti-American diatribe. It is instead a lament for the America that once was; a nation that championed freedom, justice, and human decency. That America, beautiful as the Roman goddess Libertas in whose image the Statue of Liberty was built, is gone. In her place stands a graceless bully, convinced of her own invulnerability, blind to the reality that her power was never absolute and was always dependent on others.
And now, for the first time in decades, the world is learning that it can live without America. Many nations have long wanted to ignore or defy the US, but fear, necessity, and power dynamics kept them in check. Trump has now given them justification to turn away.
This is the moment for Europe to step up. American power is in irreversible decline, consumed by its own inward-looking politics. Europe has a narrow window of opportunity to fill the vacuum, to assert itself as a geopolitical force before others seize the initiative, and dictate to it.
Because, rest assured; America’s adversaries are watching, waiting, and preparing. They understand the game better than Trump does. They know that driving a wedge between the US and its European allies accelerates America’s decline. They can see the gaping self-inflicted wounds, smell the blood in the water. They know a divided West is a weak West. And if Trump withdraws from NATO, the geopolitical chessboard tilts permanently against the democratic world.
So, this is not just a requiem for an American colossus. It is a requiem for united, combined, hitherto unassailable Western power. And unless decisive action is taken, it is a requiem for our era of stability and prosperity.