Category: How We Think

After threatening the destruction of Iran’s “whole civilisation”, President Trump has now moved back towards negotiations. As we have consistently predicted, that pivot was always likely. But it leaves us with one big question. What – if anything – has the conflict actually achieved? The short answer is that US objectives were never clearly defined.……

The world is watching the war in the Gulf. The focus is on oil. That is missing the point. As missiles fly between the US, Israel and Iran, the global narrative remains fixated on oil (along with LNG, and fertiliser), shipping lanes and the Strait of Hormuz. That is understandable. Hormuz is the world’s most…

We’ve been quiet of late because, well, there’s not been much more to say than what we’ve already told you. We predicted that the US and Israel would attack Iran on the very weekend they indeed did. We predicted that the US would have limited political patience/ will for the conflict, and that Trump would…

The big question on everybody’s mind is “how will this end?” This is a very, very complicated and professionally risky question for us to try to answer at this early stage but … we like a challenge and, given that we’ve been covering Iran for nearly a decade for clients, we have rare insight to…

There’s a military practice called Effects Based Planning; first, determine your desired outcome, or effect, then choose the course of action and tool that will generate that effect. Right now, Iran is demonstrating mastery of this approach. Remember that this is a regime that has had a long, long, long time to ponder what they’d…

Iran’s strikes on GCC nations were not a mistake. Various commentators have been declaring that Iran has made a vast mistake in firing missiles and drones into the UAE and KSA, amongst other neighbours. Now, they say, GCC nations that previously had banned US forces from using bases in their territory and from transiting their…

Well, as we predicted in our article “Crunch Time For Iran?” the USA and Israel have indeed begun attacking Iran, and on the very weekend that we forecast they would. At this early stage, we want to dig into two key messages that have emerged and which are highly telling.… Read the rest

We’ve all been watching the build-up of US forces in the Middle East over the last few weeks, threatening to attack Iran unless the Ayatollah’s regime bow to numerous, steep demands including the handover of all enriched Uranium to the US, no renewed enrichment, and the total destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities, all without offering…

Perched on a rock in stormy seas, trident still in hand but shoulders heavy, watching two shores drift further apart on either horizon. On one side? Washington – still powerful, still loud but increasingly transactional. On the other? Brussels and Berlin – slowly, methodically, talking the language of autonomy, sovereignty and strategic independence.… Read the…

Why Cash-Dependent Economies May Be Structurally More Shock-Resilient While Europe examines the risks of going cashless, much of the emerging world never made that transition in the first place. This was not because of a technological lag. It was because of underlying economic conditions. Currency volatility, institutional trust gaps, informality and infrastructure fragility all made…