Ekrem İmamoğlu is one of the most formidable political threats to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule. In this article we delve into his significance for Türkiye, and why his recent arrest has caused such a vociferous reaction across the country. If you have not already read our article Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy then we recommend you do so first, as it will provide crucial context.
He Defeated Erdoğan’s Party in Istanbul – Twice
In the 2019 municipal election, İmamoğlu won the Istanbul mayoral race, dealing a major blow to Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in its political and economic stronghold. The loss was so significant that Erdoğan’s government forced a re-run of the election. However, the strategy backfired – İmamoğlu won again, this time by an even wider margin, solidifying the public’s shifting sentiment against the ruling party.
A Rising Opposition Leader
As a charismatic, moderate, and widely popular politician, İmamoğlu quickly became a top contender for the Turkish presidency. His appeal transcended party lines, attracting not only Republican People’s Party (CHP) supporters but also undecided voters, young people, and disillusioned former AKP supporters. Many viewed him as the opposition’s strongest chance of defeating Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential election.
Arrest and Political Implications
Just before his anticipated nomination as CHP’s presidential candidate, İmamoğlu was arrested on corruption charges and alleged PKK ties, raising widespread suspicions of a politically motivated move to eliminate him from the race. To further cripple his candidacy, his university degree was annulled, effectively disqualifying him from running for office.
Public Support & Protests
His arrest has ignited mass protests right across Türkiye, erupting in over 55 provinces. At the time of writing, nearly 1,500 people have been arrested – including journalists. The scale of the demonstrations underscores a deepening public dissatisfaction with Erdoğan’s government. If unrest persists, it could further erode his support base, destabilize governance, and worsen economic instability.
How This Crisis Threatens Erdoğan’s Rule
The fallout from İmamoğlu’s arrest poses a severe political crisis for Erdoğan. So what are the key dangers he now faces?
Legitimacy Crisis & Domestic Unrest: The protests signal a growing resistance to Erdoğan’s rule. If demonstrations escalate or turn violent, his grip on power could weaken significantly, undermining his control over key institutions.
Strengthening the Opposition: Rather than neutralizing İmamoğlu, his arrest has galvanized opposition forces. This move risks backfiring spectacularly, uniting anti-Erdoğan factions and intensifying opposition momentum ahead of future elections.
International Pressure & Diplomatic Fallout: Western nations have harshly condemned Türkiye’s suppression of protesters and journalists. Continued crackdowns risk diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, and a sharp deterioration in relations with the EU and the US.
Erdoğan’s Choices
With pressure mounting, Erdoğan faces three possible courses of action.
More Repression: Escalate state crackdowns, mass arrests, and media censorship to crush dissent.
Negotiation & Concessions: If unrest spirals out of control, he may attempt strategic concessions, such as releasing İmamoğlu or initiating dialogue, to defuse tensions.
Early Elections or Political Manoeuvres: If his party’s standing weakens, he may attempt legal or electoral manipulations to retain control.
Conclusion
This crisis could define Erdoğan’s political future. His response will determine whether he tightens his authoritarian grip or is forced into strategic retreats. If he miscalculates, this moment could mark the beginning of his political end. How Erdoğan responds could determine whether this crisis cements his dominance or accelerates his decline.