Well, as we predicted in our article “Crunch Time For Iran?” the USA and Israel have indeed begun attacking Iran, and on the very weekend that we forecast they would.
At this early stage, we want to dig into two key messages that have emerged and which are highly telling. The first is from President Trump, and the second is from Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah (king) of Iran.
Trump
Shortly after the bombing began Trump released a video (YouTuBe/ CBS News) on his social media network, Truth Social, justifying it with the rather nebulous “our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”. He then recounted a list of Iranian-executed and sponsored attacks on US citizens, diplomatic staff, and military personnel. Trump went on to say that US forces would “destroy” Iran’s missiles, “raise” Iran’s missile industry “to the ground”, “annihilate” Iran’s navy, prevent Iranian proxies from continuing to destabilise the region and “ensure” that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. At the close of his speech, after the usual chunk of self-aggrandizement, Trump addressed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military directly, telling them to lay down their weapons or face “certain death”.
Lastly, he spoke to the Iranian people directly, exhorting them “when we are finished [bombing] take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No President was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a President who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close, within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Read that paragraph immediately above again. It is very important. In “Crunch Time For Iran?”, and indeed in our prior article that accurately, and five days in advance, predicted US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, we explained that “There are only two real routes to regime change in Iran – and both involve people on the ground. As Kosovo showed, air power alone is not enough. No nation, not the USA, not Israel, not even a vast coalition, has the appetite for a ground invasion of Iran. The disaster of Iraq looms large in collective memory, and Iran would be even more challenging. The only viable route towards regime change therefore is to co-opt the boots of the Iranian people themselves. Yes, in recent weeks there has been considerable unrest across Iran, but the brutal grip of the regime remains in place and has inflicted innumerable casualties amongst the brave souls that have resisted. Could a coordinated air campaign reduce the strength of Iran’s security forces sufficiently to enhance the Iranian people’s chances to prevail? Maybe, but there is zero guarantee, and there is just as much chance, if not more, that even were the clerics’ regime to fall the IRGC would take over, instead of the people – which is a worse outcome for everyone concerned.”
Trump’s words to the Iranian people here are key, therefore. It has been explained to him that, as we said in “Crunch Time For Iran?”, “the only way to stop Iranian nuclear weapons development is for the Iranians to decide to stop it themselves. That is only achievable if either the current regime decides to stop – which it certainly won’t without exacting significant sanctions relief in the least – or another, new regime takes over and decides to stop. So, halting Iranian nuclear weapons development is not an achievable aim for the coming strikes.” Trump now knows that the chance that this bombing campaign is going to achieve any strategic objectives at all is very, very slim. The only way that this might, possibly, maybe succeed is if the IRGC and other security forces lay down their weapons, the Iranian people rise up, and the clerics’ regime is toppled. By exhorting the Iranian people to seize the opportunity so generously gifted to them by himself, the magnanimous President Trump, he has expertly crafted himself an off-ramp to save face, walk away, and blame the mess on someone other than himself. Should the Iranian people fail to overthrow the clerics then Trump can say that he did his part, a part that no other President was willing to do, and the Iranian people simply failed to capitalize on the opportunity. Not his fault, theirs.
If it wasn’t so utterly cynical, we’d be impressed at the political guile.
Shah
Reza Pahlavi is the US-resident son of the Shah (king) that was deposed by the current clerical regime in Iran’s 1979 revolution. Shortly after the US-Israeli attacks began he released a statement in Farsi, aimed that the Iranian people:
“The aid promised to the Iranian people by the President of the United States has arrived. This is a humanitarian intervention, and its target is the Islamic Republic, its repressive apparatuses, and its killing machine, not the great country and people of Iran.
However, despite all this aid, the final victory will be achieved by us. The Iranian people will complete this final battle. The time to return to the streets is approaching.
Now the Islamic Republic is on the verge of collapse. My message to the armed forces, police, and the country’s security agencies is clear:
You have sworn to serve Iran and the Iranian people, not the Islamic Republic and its leaders. Your duty is to protect the people, not the repressive and criminal regime that has held our homeland hostage. Unite with the people and help ensure a stable, secure transition. Otherwise, you will sink along with Khamenei and his regime’s sunken ship.”
“I ask you to remain in your homes for now and maintain your calm and personal security. Be alert and ready to return to the streets at the appropriate moment, of which I will inform you precisely, for the final action.”
Mirroring Trump’s language, Pahlavi also addressed the US President directly:
“The noble Iranian people, despite the brutal oppression and massacre of this regime, have stood bravely for nearly two months. Now I ask you to exercise the utmost caution possible to preserve the lives of citizens and my people.
The Iranian people are a natural ally of yours and the free world, and they will not forget your help during the most difficult period in Iran’s modern history.”
There’s clear coordination between Trump’s and Pahlavi’s statements and words here. We cannot be certain if Pahlavi has been astute enough to recognize that an air campaign alone is insufficient to effect regime change, and is hopping on the US bandwagon, or if he has genuinely been brought into the US plan as an Iranian figurehead and potential plant post-conflict – but it certainly looks like the latter at this early stage.
Frankly, we really hope it is not the latter. The Iranian people do not have fond memories of Pahlavi’s father’s rule. Note that the US and UK actually re-installed the Shah themselves so as to retain their grip over Iran’s oil reserves, and his excesses and brutality directly led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution that both deposed the Shah, and ushered in the current clerical regime. Insanity is doing the same thing multiple times and expecting a different result. In short, any US attempt to install Reza Pahlavi as a new Shah in Iran is going to quickly fall flat on its face. We really wish people studied history more …
One other key point to make. Do we really think either Trump’s or Pahlavi’s messaging is reaching the vast majority of the Iranian people? The regime has already been suppressing internet access for weeks, and last night totally shut it down. Pahlavi can post on Facebook and X as much as he likes, but he’s shouting into a void as far as the people in Iran are concerned. Plus, Trump shut down Voice of America, which had a strong Farsi section … so that channel has gone too. Yet another short-sighted own goal.
Conclusion
What we’re seeing here is a strategy of hope … and nothing more. As we explained yesterday, Trump painted himself into a corner and was forced to order military action, despite knowing he’d be unable to use force to achieve any strategic objectives directly. Right now (aside from the elegant solution we explained in our conclusion yesterday, for which the window of opportunity has evaporated) the only chance for regime change, and thereby an end to Iranian nuclear weapons development, is if the Iranian people rise up and take power. If the clerics survive, this mess continues, if the IRGC survive or take power, this mess probably gets worse. And the likelihood that the Iranian people do manage to rise up and successfully take power is, very sadly, exceedingly slim. Trump knows this, and has already fashioned out his face-saving off-ramp; blaming the long-suffering Iranian people for not doing their part when he has, so magnanimously, done his.