Author: Editor
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Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025
Trade surplus continues its decline, with October’s figures failing to hit forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) held the benchmark rate once again, as we predicted – and we’re glad to see it. Whilst BI may have steadied the ship inflation-wise, we’re concerned that external forces that are eroding the trade surplus will have deeper negative effects…
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South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is inching closer to its first rate cut, but it’s being held back by sticky inflation, currency pressure and a still-hot credit environment. The signal has shifted. Easing is no longer a question of “if”, but “how fast” and “under what guardrails”. While the Monetary Policy Board remains split, the…
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December 2025
Iran’s pressures across its political, economic, and security landscapes continue. The Islamic Republic is grappling with intensifying public dissent from collapsing air quality, rising labour and resistance against hijab enforcement. Regionally, Tehran continues to project resolve, advancing its satellite and missile programs. The Rial has seen another historic low. PoliticalOrbit on the horizon.… Read the…
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December 2025
Iran’s pressures across its political, economic, and security landscapes continue. The Islamic Republic is grappling with intensifying public dissent from collapsing air quality, rising labour and resistance against hijab enforcement. Regionally, Tehran continues to project resolve, advancing its satellite and missile programs. The Rial has seen another historic low. Orbit on the horizon.… Read the…
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South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5…
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India Macro Brief: December 2025
India has cut rates but it hasn’t cut corners. The RBI lowered the repo rate to 5.25% in December, unveiled fresh liquidity support and reaffirmed its neutral stance. But this isn’t loose policy. It is strategic calibration. At the same time, the Rupee broke through the 90 to USD barrier for the first time, regulatory…
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China Macro Brief: December 2025
After Trump’s capitulation on 30th October, China has (temporarily) rolled back its retaliatory measures. Exports and trade surplus continue to rise, despite a 30% drop off in US bound goods. Both core inflation and CPI remain low, albeit perhaps too low. Having successfully stared down President Trump and his nonsensical trade war, President Xi Jinping…
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Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025
Kenya ends the year in better shape than it began it. Activity is accelerating, inflation has edged lower and the system has more breathing room on the external side. Policy remains loose, liquidity is behaving and the Shilling is holding its line. The tone has shifted from stabilisation to something closer to controlled momentum.… Read…
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December 2025
Tanzania enters the final stretch of 2025 with a political environment that feels tightly scripted, economically ambitious and diplomatically bolder than at any point in Hassan’s tenure. The October 29th election delivered exactly what most expected - a decisive CCM victory - but not without cost. Turnout was low, the opposition was side lined and…
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December 2025
Egypt ends 2025 in the centre of the storm but with little shelter from the rain. Gaza has shifted from leverage to liability, Sudan’s war is spilling steadily north and the parliamentary elections are exposing the limits of manufactured legitimacy. Diplomatically Cairo is everywhere but strategically it is overstretched. Economically the numbers still look orderly…