Category: Kingsway Iran

Iran is losing the war it was built to fight. It may yet win the war Washington cannot afford to prolong. Seven months of American and Israeli strikes have devastated Iran's conventional military capabilities. Its oil exports have been strangled, its currency is collapsing and its economy is buckling under the pressure.…… Read the rest

Iran is weaker than it was six months ago. The problem is that the war around it is getting bigger. Tehran has absorbed extraordinary military and economic punishment without losing the ability to complicate almost everything around it. Mojtaba Khamenei remains invisible, yet the state functions. Hormuz remains contested, yet Iran is already trying to…

Iran is not recovering from the war. It is adapting to it. Tehran cannot defeat the US conventionally but it has learned that it does not need to. Hormuz remains disrupted, Gulf infrastructure vulnerable and Washington unable to translate overwhelming military superiority into a decisive outcome. At home, Mojtaba Khamenei remains invisible, power is becoming…

Last month’s MOU has rapidly unravelled: Iran’s assertion of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz led to the US sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports being revoked after barely two weeks and the US displaying its frustration over the negotiations’ lack of progress with a days-long bombing campaign. Reprisal attacks against mainly military targets…

The 40-day war opened by US and Israeli strikes on Iran did not end so much as change state. Diplomacy and low-intensity fighting now run in parallel: by the second week of June a fresh exchange (a US helicopter down near Hormuz, retaliatory US strikes on southern Iran, Iranian missiles against bases in Jordan, Kuwait…

The dominant theme of this reporting period is the slow-motion collapse of the ceasefire framework agreed on 8 April. Seventy days after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, the conflict has not resumed, but never fully stopped. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, US forces continue to strike Iranian-flagged vessels,…

Iran emerged from the past month damaged but intact. By surviving the conflict, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, and imposing meaningful costs on its GCC neighbours, the Islamic Republic achieved its minimum objectives. The more important development is internal. A new leadership group with a higher tolerance for risk has coalesced around Mojtaba, who…

Here we are. Iran faces its most severe crisis in decades. On 28 February, coordinated US and Israeli airstrikes hit military, political and nuclear targets across the country, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. It has triggered an expansive Iranian response against Israel, US bases and economic targets in US-aligned states across…

Developments this month are narrowing the gap between diplomacy and confrontation. Washington has increased military pressure while pushing for a faster negotiating timeline; Israel is pressing to expand any agreement beyond the nuclear file to include missiles and regional proxies; and European institutions have stepped up pressure on Tehran in response to the domestic crackdown.………

Iran has entered 2026 in open systemic crisis. What began on 28th December as economically driven unrest has evolved into a nationwide political confrontation between state authority and social endurance. The collapse of confidence has been accelerated by three overlapping shocks - a currency and banking rupture, a prolonged digital blackout that paralysed daily life…