Author: Editor
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Kenya Macro Brief: November 2025
CBR cut again: Eighth consecutive rate reduction - down 25 bp to 9.25% on 7th October as inflation stays at 4.6%. Momentum building: PMI 52.5 (Oct). Fastest expansion since early 2022; output and new orders up sharply. Debt realignment deepens: Kenya converts around USD5 billion of Chinese loans into RMB, easing FX risk and strengthening…
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Romania Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation hovers at 9.9%, benchmark rate held once again. Trade deficit widening, now at almost 10% of GDP. Overly optimistic forecasts for reducing the budget deficit fail to perceive the highly resilient roadblocks that will be put up by various state organs. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continued to hold interest rates…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: November 2025
Key Points CBRT slows pace of cuts: trims the one-week repo rate by 100 bp to 39.5%, signalling a shift to data-dependent easing. Inflation pressures re-emerge: September CPI at 33.3% y/y. Anticipate market expectations rising toward 31.8% year-end. Lira hits new lows: trades around TRY 41.9/USD and TRY 48.9/EUR; depreciation continues with limited intervention.… Read…
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November 2025
October saw Mexico stumble into a test of resolve. A wave of natural disasters exposed how thin the state’s capacity really is. Its infrastructure frayed, finances stretched and legacy decisions now echo loudly. At the same time, coordinated moves by Mexico and the United States to strike organised‑crime networks are putting the pillars of sovereignty…
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Malaysia: Macro Brief October 2025
Malaysia’s financial system is quietly shifting gears again. The focus this month wasn’t on rates or reserves. It was on structure, supervision and stability. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is tightening how credit is extended, how risks are priced and how financial data moves. Add in a handful of regulatory tweaks and consumer-facing changes and it’s…
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Russia Macro Brief: October 2025
Nails are now being whacked into the Russian coffin. UK, US and EU sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a powerful blow. Chinese concessions are easier than you might think – but look to wider oil market factors. Russia’s decline continues, now accelerating. Recent Chinese concessions not to purchase crude from Russian suppliers are less…
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Why Washington Stepped In: Inside the $40 Billion Bailout
We’ve just seen the biggest US intervention in a foreign market in years and it happened in the middle of a government shutdown. Argentina didn’t just get a bailout. It got a guardian. The Mechanics: How the Money Moved Without Congress Officially, this isn’t a bailout. Washington calls it a currency-swap arrangement between the US…
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Argentina Macro Brief: October 2025
Power gained, independence lost Milei’s midterm win gives him the votes to drive reforms but at the cost of deeper US financial dependence. US bailout doubled to USD 40 billion, turning liquidity support into a full geopolitical backstop. Short-term rates spiked above 80 % as the BCRA struggled with liquidity after scrapping LEFIs.… Read the…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: October 2025
September total exports data is highly encouraging - Vietnam is on course to smash 2024 figures. Given US tariffs went into effect on 7th August we await specific data on exports to the US for September to tell us the full story, but we’re optimistic that tariffs have only slightly dented US-bound exports.… Read the…