Author: Editor
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Türkiye Macro Brief: October 2025
At a Glance CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%. The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story…
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October 2025
This month, Sheinbaum’s administration carried out one of the most significant operations against organised crime, as anticipated. Its importance lies not only in disrupting cartel revenue streams but also in signalling a political shift on three fronts: alignment with US priorities, increased investor confidence, and a deliberate move to distance herself from her predecessor’s agenda.………
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Philippines Macro Brief: September 2025
US tariffs impact is becoming clearer, but we encourage you to look past the histrionic headlines and dig into the data – the true impact on the Philippines is likely to be much more muted than some are saying. Inflation crept up in August but remains enviably low. We continue to anticipate a further benchmark…
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Russia Macro Brief: September 2025
The Russian giant is beginning to sway. At long last, after years of sanctions, the effects are finally beginning to be felt. The Russian economy is now punchdrunk, weak at the knees, and it is no longer a question of whether the giant will fall, but when. Monetary policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR)…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: September 2025
As we said in our last report “after Vietnam secured arguably the best US tariff deal amongst all ASEAN nations we now wait to measure the true economic impact …” and it seems we already have some data available to quantify that impact. In the short-term Vietnam will indeed take a sizeable hit … but…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: September 2025
Last month we said Malaysia’s pivot was now unmistakeable. Now, with the July cut behind us, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has shifted into a “hold and assess” mode. Inflation is soft, growth is middling and liquidity is looser than it looks on the surface. The Ringgit has narrowed into a tighter band, while enforcement around…
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Argentina Macro Brief: September 2025
In August we closed with a question: “The reforms are intact, but the test now is stamina – can Milei keep markets onside while cushioning the strain on the real economy?” September has given us the answer. Reserves are draining, controls are creeping back and Washington is preparing a bailout. Milei has failed the stamina…
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Chile Macro Brief: September 2025
Chile is in calibration mode. The Central Bank has paused again, headline inflation is easing but core remains sticky and the Peso is holding steady under external pressure. The labour market is stuck, regulation keeps edging forward and with the election now weeks away the politics are doing most of the heavy lifting.… Read the…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: September 2025
Yet another surprise rate cut, but one that we feel was too much, too soon. The inflation jump that we pointed out in our last report remains a concern, and the reason we’re not convinced of the wisdom of this latest rate cut so soon after another. Widespread social unrest, centered around political grievances, engulfed…