Author: Editor
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October 2025
Iran’s political and economic landscape is deteriorating into another turbulent new phase with UN sanctions snapping back and the rial falling even to new historic lows. As usual, Tehran is tightening restrictions at home and projecting defiance abroad. With Europe upping the pressure through multilateral channels, Iran is digging in – rejecting nuclear limits, arguing…
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October 2025
Iran’s political and economic landscape is deteriorating into another turbulent new phase with UN sanctions snapping back and the rial falling even to new historic lows. As usual, Tehran is tightening restrictions at home and projecting defiance abroad. With Europe upping the pressure through multilateral channels, Iran is digging in - rejecting nuclear limits, arguing…
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Egypt’s Debt Story: A Recovery Built on Fragile Ground
The headlines are comforting. Egypt’s debt on track to hit lowest level since 2016 by 2030, says the IMF. Ahram Online dutifully reported it while Cairo’s officials echoed the optimism. But if you look behind the tidy slope of those projections you will see there is a more complicated reality. It is one that depends…
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South Korea Macro Brief: October 2025
Rate hold again - but tone shifts: The BOK held at 2.5% for a second month but internal dissent is growing. Four out of seven board members now back a cut within the next quarter. Household debt in the crosshairs: Regulators are tightening operational controls - including stricter lending caps and zero LTV for some…
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October 2025
A month on since our last report and Egypt’s balancing act looks less like stability and more like managed stagnation. Diplomatically, Cairo’s Gaza centrality has turned from leverage to liability. Economically, the veneer of calm rests on Gulf cash and borrowed time. The Pound holds only because it must as the Suez continues to bleed…
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October 2025
A month on since our last report and Egypt’s balancing act looks less like stability and more like managed stagnation. Diplomatically, Cairo’s Gaza centrality has turned from leverage to liability. Economically, the veneer of calm rests on Gulf cash and borrowed time. The Pound holds only because it must as the Suez continues to bleed…
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India Macro Brief: October 2025
• RBI holds rates at 5.50% but upgrades FY26 GDP to 6.8% and cuts inflation forecast to 2.6% — policy space remains open. • Credit risk rules shift as RBI releases draft Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and new capital charge norms. • CBDC pilots expand with tokenised CDs in wholesale markets and a new…
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South Africa Macro Brief: October 2025
Base rate unchanged at 7%. Inflation slightly down to 3.3% in August from 3.5% in July. Trump’s July threat to apply additional 10% tariffs to BRICS+ aligned nations impractical. Record high for Jo’burg stock exchange is misleading – primarily due to gold price rises. RSA continues to have a bumpy ride, and the full effects…
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Kenya Macro Brief: October 2025
MPC on hold: No move since August’s 25 bp cut; CBR steady at 9.50% ahead of the 7 October meeting. Inflation up, still tame: 4.6% in September, driven by food and transport, but below 5% and within the CBK’s target band. Private sector rebound: PMI back in expansion (51.9) - first since April - hinting…
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Romania Macro Brief: October 2025
Another inflationary jump, benchmark rate held again. A stable leu (against the Euro), unemployment continues to edge up. The disparate parties of the already shaky coalition found another opportunity to compete with one another – but once again President Dan has shown his political skill. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to…