Author: Editor
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Brazil Macro Brief: December 2025
Another good month of exports, but imports are rising, narrowing the trade surplus. Selic rate held at 15%, inflation continues to fall … but very gently. Any base rate reduction is only likely to be in small, cautious increments. US Supreme Court is currently deliberating over the legality of Trump’s tariffs, and a decision against…
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South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5…
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India Macro Brief: December 2025
India has cut rates but it hasn’t cut corners. The RBI lowered the repo rate to 5.25% in December, unveiled fresh liquidity support and reaffirmed its neutral stance. But this isn’t loose policy. It is strategic calibration. At the same time, the Rupee broke through the 90 to USD barrier for the first time, regulatory…
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China Macro Brief: December 2025
After Trump’s capitulation on 30th October, China has (temporarily) rolled back its retaliatory measures. Exports and trade surplus continue to rise, despite a 30% drop off in US bound goods. Both core inflation and CPI remain low, albeit perhaps too low. Having successfully stared down President Trump and his nonsensical trade war, President Xi Jinping…
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Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025
Kenya ends the year in better shape than it began it. Activity is accelerating, inflation has edged lower and the system has more breathing room on the external side. Policy remains loose, liquidity is behaving and the Shilling is holding its line. The tone has shifted from stabilisation to something closer to controlled momentum.… Read…
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December 2025
Tanzania enters the final stretch of 2025 with a political environment that feels tightly scripted, economically ambitious and diplomatically bolder than at any point in Hassan’s tenure. The October 29th election delivered exactly what most expected - a decisive CCM victory - but not without cost. Turnout was low, the opposition was side lined and…
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December 2025
Egypt ends 2025 in the centre of the storm but with little shelter from the rain. Gaza has shifted from leverage to liability, Sudan’s war is spilling steadily north and the parliamentary elections are exposing the limits of manufactured legitimacy. Diplomatically Cairo is everywhere but strategically it is overstretched. Economically the numbers still look orderly…
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December 2025
Egypt ends 2025 in the centre of the storm but with little shelter from the rain. Gaza has shifted from leverage to liability, Sudan’s war is spilling steadily north and the parliamentary elections are exposing the limits of manufactured legitimacy. Diplomatically Cairo is everywhere but strategically it is overstretched. Economically the numbers still look orderly…
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Romania Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation dips almost imperceptibly to 9.8%, benchmark rate held once again. Central Bank finally revises year-end inflation forecast significantly upward. Trade deficit narrowing – slowly. September 2025 data put it at USD2.9Bn. Monetary Policy At the 12th November meeting the Central Bank Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 6.50%,…
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When Inflation Stops Mattering: The New Geography of Strategic Capital
Investors aren’t supposed to behave like this. Conventional wisdom says foreign investors will run from high inflation. In theory no one should be sending long term capital to countries where 30% price growth wipes out real returns before you’ve even taken off your jacket. Yet in 2025, as one analyst put it, Türkiye’s ‘sky high…