Author: Chief Editor
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Brazil Macro Brief: October 2025
Brazil posts record trade results in September, set for a full-year $61Bn total trade surplus. The impact of US tariffs completely negated by considerable growths in non-US exports. EU-Mercosur agreement takes on renewed importance, further diminishing US power. Record trade results in September herald a trade surplus bounty by year end.… Read the rest
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China Macro Brief: October 2025
US-China trade war reignites after US extends restrictions against sanctioned Chinese firms. China responds in kind with new restrictions linked to rare earth elements. Trump threatens additional 100% tariffs to commence 1st November. S&P drops by over 2% and cryptocurrencies suffer “largest liquidation event in crypto history”. Trump posts a passive aggressive comment to calm…
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Shifting Trade Winds
Since WW2 the global trade and financial system has primarily favoured the USA. Akin to all empires of old, the US had, and still has, a crucial role in ensuring the system’s stability, delivering continued US prosperity and hegemonic power. President Trump, and his acolytes, do not grasp the above, and through their foreign policy…
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Tariff Diplomacy and the Illusion of Surpluses
For decades the United States was the world’s great consumer, importing more than it sold, and building trade deficits around the planet. Now, in pockets of the emerging and frontier world, Washington is suddenly chalking up trade surpluses. At first glance, this looks like an American comeback. In reality, it is an illusion built on…
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Why the Biggest NATO Summit Story Flew Under the Radar
Forget the viral clips. The real story out of the NATO Summit wasn’t Trump’s mood swings or Zelenskyy’s charm offensive. It was a quiet yet seismic financial shift – one that fundamentally rewires how the West funds Ukraine’s war effort. For the first time, NATO has agreed that aid to Ukraine can officially count towards…
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Is the USA About to Join Israel Against Iran?
A major shift is underway. Where it leads is still unclear – but all signs point towards deeper US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran. The pre-conditions are largely in place, both politically and operationally, and the logic of escalation is closing fast. This piece breaks down the drivers, risks and likely consequences.… Read…
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Türkiye: Who is İmamoğlu and Why Does He Matter?
Ekrem İmamoğlu is one of the most formidable political threats to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule. In this article we delve into his significance for Türkiye, and why his recent arrest has caused such a vociferous reaction across the country. If you have not already read our article Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy then we…
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Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy
President Erdoğan has made significant shifts in Turkish politics over his more than two decades in power, transitioning Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency all while consolidating control over key institutions. Here are some of the most critical changes and how he did it. In 2017, Erdoğan pushed for a constitutional referendum…
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So Much For “Deep and Thoughtful” – Vance’s Signal Debacle
The recent revelation by The Atlantic’s editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, that he was inadvertently included in a Signal chat group discussing imminent US airstrikes on Yemen is nothing short of astonishing. This scandal exposes a troubling mix of incompetence, naiveté and callous disregard for both military realities and global alliances. The implications of this blunder will…
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An American NATO Exit: A Costly Mistake?
President Donald Trump has openly criticized NATO, suggesting the US should leave the alliance. Elon Musk has echoed similar sentiments and US relations with NATO allies have been under strain. It is worth considering what a NATO without the United States might look like – and what it could be capable of.… Read the rest