There is an old, if rather distasteful, analogy: drop a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, but put it in cold water, slowly turn up the heat, and the frog will stay until it dies. So it is with both those still blindly following Trump, believing his and Vance’s crass actions conceal some veiled genius, and with those who still think this is like any other prior administration. There is no master plan, and this administration is like no other before.
Democratic governance relies on professional, experienced civil servants to ensure stability and policy continuity when elected citizens take office. This safeguard is failing in the US. Under Trump, expertise has been purged, replaced by sycophants and amateurs. Any professionals who might steer Trump toward sound decisions have been fired via Musk’s DOGE, silenced with fear, or muscled out. The result – chaos, paralysis and erratic decision-making, a weakening America.
On Trump’s inauguration our sources tell us that Pentagon and NSA generals stopped making independent decisions, fearing missteps in an administration that demands total loyalty. Canada’s Foreign Minister, Mélanie Joly, recently described how Trump’s erratic tariff policies have made negotiations impossible – US officials themselves don’t know their government’s stance from one moment to the next. This is not how a mature democracy functions, it is how Stalinist autocracies operate, with officials fearful of not satisfying their leader’s latest whim.
Amateur Hour in Political Appointments
Trump’s cabinet picks showcase this amateurishness. Pete Hegseth, confirmed as Secretary of Defence only by JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote, lacks the qualifications for the role. Compared to respected leaders like General Jim Mattis – a consummate professional, qualified, experienced soldier – who resigned in frustration that Trump would not listen to his sage advice, Hegseth, who never rose beyond the rank of Major, is out of his depth. His appointment reflects not expertise but malleability to Trump’s will.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health Secretary is another disaster. An anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist with a heroin conviction, RFK Jr. has assumed control over US health policy – after a global pandemic no less. As measles outbreaks spread due to vaccine skepticism, he promotes ineffective remedies like over-the-counter vitamin A and cod liver oil supplements, echoing Trump’s past flirtations with pseudoscience, from injecting bleach to misunderstanding transgenic research (“transgender mice”).
Even Trump’s one very qualified pick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has seemingly drunk the Kool-Aid. A former hedge fund titan, he should know tariffs hurt US consumers and trade relations, spark inflation and job losses. Yet he defends Trump’s policies, dismissing economic realities and insulting allies like Canada’s former Prime Minister Trudeau by calling him a “numbskull.” His belief that the US can antagonize global markets without consequence is naive. This is not the 1930s; the US cannot isolate itself from the global economy.
Beyond economic missteps, Trump and his team are actively, if ignorantly, undermining American power. By halting USAID operations, Trump gutted a critical soft power tool that bolstered US influence abroad. Aid is not charity – it is strategic. It prevents mass migration, fosters economic stability, and secures diplomatic alliances. Without it, the US cedes ground to competitors like China and Russia. Competent diplomats would have warned against this self-inflicted wound, but there are none left in Trump’s inner circle.
Insulting Allies & Weakening Global Standing
The same recklessness extends to foreign policy. Trump’s disdain for NATO and his coziness with Russia shakes the foundation of US alliances. For years, Washington has led an Indo-Pacific Tilt strategy to counter China’s rise. Yet by alienating allies, Trump is weakening the very coalition needed to sustain this effort. The AUKUS pact – once a cornerstone of this strategy – now faces doubts as Australia and the UK question America’s reliability.
The humiliation of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office was another diplomatic debacle. Vance, as a Vice President, had no business publicly berating a sitting President, particularly one fighting for his country’s survival. His sneering at Ukraine’s wartime conscription – despite the US having itself used drafts in past conflicts – reveals a profound ignorance of history and military necessity. Again, had experienced diplomats been present, this fiasco could have been avoided.
Conclusion: The Grown Ups Have Left the Room
There are no professionals left in the White House. Trump, Vance and their appointees are erratic, ill-informed and reckless. They are dismantling America’s hard and soft power alike, arrogantly assuming the US is invulnerable, blind to the fact that it is they that are roundly undermining America at every turn. Yet power is not absolute; it can be squandered and the damage now being inflicted from within is profound and lasting.
If you have not yet factored this into your investment strategy you really must, for this administration is not like anything we have seen before, and the impacts will not fit to models based on how prior administrations would have handled adverse developments.
The heat is rising. We truly hope America realises this before it is too late … and the frog is dead.