Category: How We Think
-
Somalia Is No Longer a Peripheral Concern. It Is a Geopolitical Battleground.
Somalia now sits at the intersection of three strategic systems: the Nile basin, the Red Sea corridor and the Middle East security competition. That alone should make it one of the most geopolitically sensitive territories in Africa. It rarely gets treated that way. The Red Sea carries a large share of global trade.… Read the…
-
When Institutions Become Optional
Institutions have not collapsed. They have been outmanoeuvred. What we are watching now is not the failure of the post-war order, but its quiet circumvention. Power no longer needs to break institutions to get what it wants. It can move through them, around them and, when necessary, in spite of them – without pulling the…
-
The Great Game Is Back – Now Stripped of All Pretence
What we are witnessing now is not a new world order. It is an old one returning – not fully restored, but no longer restrained. The language may be modern and the tools more sophisticated, but the logic is unmistakably familiar. Powerful states are asserting their entitlement over space. Borders are treated as negotiable.… Read…
-
Venezuela and the End of Constraint
Venezuela is not the story – permission is. When the United States moves to impose control over Venezuela, openly citing narcotics, or oil, or proximity, or presidential dislike, it is not simply intervening in Latin America. It is signaling that power, not restraint, now defines the outer boundary of acceptable behaviour.… Read the rest
-
Five Predictions for 2026 That Matter
2026 will not be defined by a single shock or turning point. Instead it will be by the cumulative impact of policy uncertainty, geopolitical friction and capital repositioning. The old anchors are weakening and markets will be forced to discriminate more aggressively. These are the five calls that will matter most.… Read the rest
-
When Inflation Stops Mattering: The New Geography of Strategic Capital
Investors aren’t supposed to behave like this. Conventional wisdom says foreign investors will run from high inflation. In theory no one should be sending long term capital to countries where 30% price growth wipes out real returns before you’ve even taken off your jacket. Yet in 2025, as one analyst put it, Türkiye’s ‘sky high…
-
Why Washington Stepped In: Inside the $40 Billion Bailout
We’ve just seen the biggest US intervention in a foreign market in years and it happened in the middle of a government shutdown. Argentina didn’t just get a bailout. It got a guardian. The Mechanics: How the Money Moved Without Congress Officially, this isn’t a bailout. Washington calls it a currency-swap arrangement between the US…
-
Egypt’s Debt Story: A Recovery Built on Fragile Ground
The headlines are comforting. Egypt’s debt on track to hit lowest level since 2016 by 2030, says the IMF. Ahram Online dutifully reported it while Cairo’s officials echoed the optimism. But if you look behind the tidy slope of those projections you will see there is a more complicated reality. It is one that depends…
-
Shifting Trade Winds
Since WW2 the global trade and financial system has primarily favoured the USA. Akin to all empires of old, the US had, and still has, a crucial role in ensuring the system’s stability, delivering continued US prosperity and hegemonic power. President Trump, and his acolytes, do not grasp the above, and through their foreign policy…
-
Reactors and Realignment: What Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Move Really Signals
Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with its first civilian nuclear plant – but this isn’t just about power grids or carbon targets. It is about leverage. And the game around it is changing fast. The IAEA has thrown its weight behind the project, offering full support from start to finish. On paper, Astana has a clean…