Author: Editor
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Argentina Macro Brief: July 2025
Rates unleashed, inflation tamed – and Phase 3 quietly begins Monetary Policy The Central Bank has officially let go of the steering wheel. In early July, the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) scrapped its benchmark interest rate and shifted to a market-determined pricing system. Rates are now floating, guided by liquidity auctions and…
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Chile Macro Brief: July 2025
Chile enters the second half of the year with resilience holding, but stress starting to show. The Central Bank has finally shifted, cutting rates for the first time in 2025 as inflation cools and growth steadies. But the policy path remains cautious, the labour market is still dragging and vulnerabilities in infrastructure and cyber resilience…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: July 2025
As we said in our prior report “all in all, Indonesia feels increasingly positive”. Now, with the successful negotiation of a trade deal with the US that effectively makes Indonesia the most favoured nation in all of ASEAN, Indonesia’s horizon looks even brighter. For, even if US trade does indeed only currently account for 2%…
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China Macro Brief: July 2025
US-China trade negotiations, and rhetoric, continue. As you read this US and Chinese officials, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Vice Premier He Lifeng, are engaged in discussions in Stockholm, Sweden. Both sides hold ace cards up their sleeves, not just in terms of the volumes of trade that these nations do with one…
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Brazil Macro Brief: July 2025
In July US-Brazil relations took a nosedive, propelling US tariffs on Brazilian products to a new high commencing 1st August. Brazil is now considering its retaliatory options. Stubborn inflation rose in June compared to May and the BCB propelled the SELIC rate a further 25bp to now 15% in response. US Relations, Visas, and Tariffs…
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Taiwan Macro Brief: July 2025
Taiwan continues to chart a steady macro course. Inflation is cooling, jobs are strong and the central bank is keeping rates on hold. But beneath that calm, authorities are fine-tuning their approach to capital inflows and stepping up oversight in quiet but important ways. Monetary Policy No surprises here. The Central Bank of the Republic…
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South Korea Macro Brief: July 2025
South Korea’s macro machine continues to shift gears. Policymakers are easing up on the monetary side but tightening elsewhere - particularly on debt, capital flow monitoring and digital finance. The backdrop hasn’t changed: domestic demand remains soft, external risks are gathering pace, and the government is still trying to walk the tightrope between growth support…
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India Macro Brief: July 2025
We are seeing big moves but also quiet signals. India’s macro machinery is firing on all fronts but not always where most people are looking. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has gone bold with a surprise 50bp rate cut and a deeper Cash Reserve Ratio slash. But it has also shifted into mop-up mode,…
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July 2025
Kazakhstan is once again walking a tight rope. This month’s US strikes on Iran have redrawn the risk map - and Tokayev is feeling the pressure. Geopolitically, the country is doubling down on strategic hedging: locking in nuclear deals with China and Russia, re-engaging with the EU and quietly upgrading ties with the Taliban.…… Read…
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July 2025
Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated in May after a terrorist attack in Kashmir. Although a ceasefire is now officially in place - it is patently no more than a temporary patch and not a real solution. Heavy-handed Indian tactics have antagonized the population and the major problems - involving the status of Kashmir and…