Author: Editor
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October 2025
A month on since our last report and Egypt’s balancing act looks less like stability and more like managed stagnation. Diplomatically, Cairo’s Gaza centrality has turned from leverage to liability. Economically, the veneer of calm rests on Gulf cash and borrowed time. The Pound holds only because it must as the Suez continues to bleed…
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October 2025
A month on since our last report and Egypt’s balancing act looks less like stability and more like managed stagnation. Diplomatically, Cairo’s Gaza centrality has turned from leverage to liability. Economically, the veneer of calm rests on Gulf cash and borrowed time. The Pound holds only because it must as the Suez continues to bleed…
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India Macro Brief: October 2025
• RBI holds rates at 5.50% but upgrades FY26 GDP to 6.8% and cuts inflation forecast to 2.6% — policy space remains open. • Credit risk rules shift as RBI releases draft Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and new capital charge norms. • CBDC pilots expand with tokenised CDs in wholesale markets and a new…
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South Africa Macro Brief: October 2025
Base rate unchanged at 7%. Inflation slightly down to 3.3% in August from 3.5% in July. Trump’s July threat to apply additional 10% tariffs to BRICS+ aligned nations impractical. Record high for Jo’burg stock exchange is misleading – primarily due to gold price rises. RSA continues to have a bumpy ride, and the full effects…
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Kenya Macro Brief: October 2025
MPC on hold: No move since August’s 25 bp cut; CBR steady at 9.50% ahead of the 7 October meeting. Inflation up, still tame: 4.6% in September, driven by food and transport, but below 5% and within the CBK’s target band. Private sector rebound: PMI back in expansion (51.9) - first since April - hinting…
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Romania Macro Brief: October 2025
Another inflationary jump, benchmark rate held again. A stable leu (against the Euro), unemployment continues to edge up. The disparate parties of the already shaky coalition found another opportunity to compete with one another – but once again President Dan has shown his political skill. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: October 2025
At a Glance CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%. The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story…
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October 2025
This month, Sheinbaum’s administration carried out one of the most significant operations against organised crime, as anticipated. Its importance lies not only in disrupting cartel revenue streams but also in signalling a political shift on three fronts: alignment with US priorities, increased investor confidence, and a deliberate move to distance herself from her predecessor’s agenda.………
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Philippines Macro Brief: September 2025
US tariffs impact is becoming clearer, but we encourage you to look past the histrionic headlines and dig into the data – the true impact on the Philippines is likely to be much more muted than some are saying. Inflation crept up in August but remains enviably low. We continue to anticipate a further benchmark…