Category: How We Think

It seems as if every day another media pundit is screaming that World War III is imminent. Among other factors, first and foremost they point to Russia, citing her invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine now being authorized to use NATO weapons to strike inside Russia, and North Korean troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.… Read the…

In our recent article “WWIII? Let’s All Just Calm Down, Shall We?” we debunked the media’s histrionic narrative that WWIII is imminent and inevitable, and explained the geopolitical context behind today’s global instability … and the likelihood that the planet will resettle in coming years. At the centre of the media’s shrill WWIII predictions stemming…

In our recent article “The Indo-Pacific Tilt: What Is It and Why Do You Care?” we explained how the world has undergone a tectonic geopolitical shift since mid-2021, and one that is already affecting you and your investments. We also touched on the investment opportunities that this new geopolitical era now offers to those who,…

First, we shall explain what the Indo-Pacific Tilt is, how we know that it has occurred, and why it is so significant. We will go on to explain why you really should care; it has already affected you, and will continue to do so, bringing both risk and opportunity to your business and investments.… Read…

The below analysis was provided to our clients on 1st February 2024. Since then, conversations about increasing European defence spending have been rife across the continent. In recent weeks there have been some fairly alarming statements made by UK politicians, senior serving and retired UK military officers, and by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy on a recent…

The below analysis was originally provided to our clients on 25th May 2022. It remains highly relevant. With every day that goes by since Russia invaded Ukraine there seem to be more and more pundits and politicians opining that “Russia has changed the world”. This narrative gives President Putin far too much credit, suggesting that…

1st September 2021 How did we get here, to this debacle? For that it is what it absolutely is – a debacle, a tragedy, a geopolitical misstep. You, our clients, have known for many months, even years, our fervent position that negotiations with the Afghan Taliban (henceforth Taliban, as opposed to the Pakistani Taliban or…

10th October 2018 Once again, talks between Cairo and Addis Ababa have ended in deadlock. In the last week of September Water Ministers from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt met in the Ethiopian capital to discuss the reservoir filling operations of the dam. Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s proposals. The three countries have been engaging in tripartite talks…

20th September 2018 President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has his hands full. Whilst Egypt’s fighting with Islamic State-allied (IS or Daesh) militants centred around Arish in Northern Sinai has caught the world’s eye and has been robustly addressed with much publicity by the Egyptian military, there also exists a bubbling conflict in the Western Desert that…

20th September 2018 In mid-July a popular English-language weekly that covers economics, politics and finance published an article discussing the spread of Islamist terror groups in the Sahel, and the “fall” of Nigeria. Perhaps you read it … Like a lot of mainstream media the article provided an adequate overview, but tended toward the alarmist. ……