Category: How We Think

President Donald Trump has openly criticized NATO, suggesting the US should leave the alliance. Elon Musk has echoed similar sentiments and US relations with NATO allies have been under strain. It is worth considering what a NATO without the United States might look like – and what it could be capable of.… Read the rest

There is an old, if rather distasteful, analogy: drop a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, but put it in cold water, slowly turn up the heat, and the frog will stay until it dies. So it is with both those still blindly following Trump, believing his and Vance’s crass actions conceal some…

Every nation has its own unique power blend to employ in the pursuit of its aims. Some nations’ blends are stronger, some are weaker, but all of them are composed of two ingredients – hard and soft power. The precise mix of soft and hard ingredients in each nation’s power smoothie, depends on that country’s…

We are living through a defining moment in history; the now unmistakable, and ignominious in its execution, end of Pax Americana. This is not just a transition into the Indo-Pacific Tilt geopolitical epoch; it is the sad, premature death of American pre-eminence as the world’s foremost authority and power. And no, this is not entirely…

It seems as if every day another media pundit is screaming that World War III is imminent. Among other factors, first and foremost they point to Russia, citing her invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine now being authorized to use NATO weapons to strike inside Russia, and North Korean troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.… Read the…

In our recent article “WWIII? Let’s All Just Calm Down, Shall We?” we debunked the media’s histrionic narrative that WWIII is imminent and inevitable, and explained the geopolitical context behind today’s global instability … and the likelihood that the planet will resettle in coming years. At the centre of the media’s shrill WWIII predictions stemming…

In our recent article “The Indo-Pacific Tilt: What Is It and Why Do You Care?” we explained how the world has undergone a tectonic geopolitical shift since mid-2021, and one that is already affecting you and your investments. We also touched on the investment opportunities that this new geopolitical era now offers to those who,…

First, we shall explain what the Indo-Pacific Tilt is, how we know that it has occurred, and why it is so significant. We will go on to explain why you really should care; it has already affected you, and will continue to do so, bringing both risk and opportunity to your business and investments.… Read…

The below analysis was provided to our clients on 1st February 2024. Since then, conversations about increasing European defence spending have been rife across the continent. In recent weeks there have been some fairly alarming statements made by UK politicians, senior serving and retired UK military officers, and by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy on a recent…

The below analysis was originally provided to our clients on 25th May 2022. It remains highly relevant. With every day that goes by since Russia invaded Ukraine there seem to be more and more pundits and politicians opining that “Russia has changed the world”. This narrative gives President Putin far too much credit, suggesting that…